Summer Box Office Winners Predictions

As we get ready to motor full steam ahead into the summer of 2008 movie season, it’s also that time for predictions and guess work to start abounding. Entertainment Weekly apparently just put out it’s list of how they see the top 10 money grossing movies of the summer will be. I thought it would be fun to put it up and then see how it compares with my own predictions.

The EW report forcasts that the box office break down will look something like this:

1. Indiana Jones and The Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (355.9 million)
2. The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian (310.8 million)
3. Hancock (280.4 million)
4. Wall-E (280.3 million)
5. Iron Man (267.7 million)
6. The Dark Knight (255.0 million)
7. Kung Fu Panda (244.6 million)
8. The Mummy: Tomb of the Dragon Emperor (176.5 million)
9. The Incredible Hulk (147.2 million)
10. Tropic Thunder (146.6 million)

So how does that list hold up against mine? I’m not bothering with dollar figures, but here’s how I think it will shake out:

1) Indiana Jones 4 - It will also end up being the top grossing movie of the year.
2) Iron Man - It’s also been marketed perfectly. This thing will make a mint
3) Wall-E - Pixar is hard to bet against
4) Prince Caspian
5) The Dark Knight
6) Hancock - I’ve given up underestimating how well Will Smith movies do
7) The Incredible Hulk
8) The Mummy 3
9) Hellboy 2
10) Kung Fu Panda

So enough of what I think… how do YOU see the summer of 2008 box office shaking down? Put your predictions and lists in the comments section.

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40 thoughts on “Summer Box Office Winners Predictions

  1. HAHAHA I can not believe how terrible you guys are at predictions

    While no one is likely to believe me, I called the summer almost perfect

    These were my predicitons

    The Dark Knight- i called over 500 mil. Believe it.

    Indiana Jones- 320

    Iron Man- A little over 300

    Prince Caspian- (NO ONE called this) 250

    Wall E- 240

    Hancock- 220

    Kung Fu Panda- 200 (i figured it would beat the original madagascar)

    Hulk- 160

    The Mummy 3- 150

    Sex and the City- 120

    Get Smart- 110

    i forget the others but I def called it pretty well. How the hell did people predict the dark knight around 250? its the fucking most hyped movie of the year and looked so sick not to mention indiana jones didnt look that great. iron man had a fantastic trailer. walle is tooweird to be the next finding nemo. i have no idea what happened to speed racer, narnia, or the x files.

  2. Indy
    Dark Knight
    Iron Man
    Kung Fu Panda

    I feel like for the most part there is a general consensus that my top three will be in the top 5. However, the real battle this year is that of the animated films.

    Pixar’s Wall-E, though impressive has brought up concern with many. They, including those in the industry, are worried that a robot which does not speak words could hinder a certain connection with children. Yes, beeps and boops are fun and kids like that stuff. But a lack of words could lose a child’s attention.

    Dreamwork’s Kung Fu Panda follows a certain animal style that DreamWorks seems to love. However, from the trailers and people in the business. They believe over time, it may be even bigger than shrek. There is something about a panda, a fat panda at that, that just makes you smile.

    WALL-E vs Kung Fu Panda……winner: Kung Fu Panda

  3. Well i think the top five will be:

    Indiana jones
    Dark Knight
    Iron MAn

    after them:

    Kung fu Panda
    Hellboy 2
    Sex and the city
    the happening
    mummy 3

  4. I don’t know why I’m the only one who cannot feel the Indiana Jones Hype
    but if you say so…

    1.Iron Man
    amazing movie,would be shocked if it didnt
    PIXAR rules
    3.Indy 4:
    Will do really good but i doubt it will be great
    4.Dark Knight
    Should Do Great the buzz is excellent
    never underestimate Will Smith even if the movie looks like a bomb
    6.Prince Caspian
    Must do well, the first one did!
    Could go either way but i bet its better than before
    8.Sex and the City
    Women are dying over it release,will do really well
    9.Tropic Thunder
    The movie looks awesome PLUS This is Downey Jr.’s year
    10.Kung Fu Panda/Hell boy 2
    coming between big blockbusters could go either way based on reviews

    and why the Mummy 3? it looks ZZZzzzz…….

  5. (Type your comment here. Make sure you’ve read the commenting rules before doing so)Will Smith owns July.. Hancock is going to be big top 3 this summer.

  6. 1.Indiana Jones
    2.Prince Caspian
    3.The Dark Knight
    5.The Mummy 3
    6.The X-Files 2
    7.The Happening
    8.Kung Fu Panda
    9.Iron Man
    10.Sex And The City

    As much as I love Edward Norton and Tim Roth, I’m almost hoping the new Hulk tanks so that people will stop and realize “Hey, the first one actually was a good movie, we should have left it alone.” But, not living in an ideal world I won’t hold my breath.

  7. Dudes Indy4 will undoubtedly be the biggest movie of the year.Prince Caspian and WALL-E will do awesomely good as they will be family friendly I dont see Iron Man making 2nd or 3rd.Its the first of the franchise and will do reasonably well.Speed Racer and Hellboy2 are going to be in the top 10 if they are good,they have got good credits though.The Dark Knight was awaited with bated breath by fans[Ledgers death notwithstanding].Begins didnt do so well because people were expecting another Schumacher crapfest thingy but it has gained a cult following and will probably make it to No.2.Expect 2 comedies in the top 10.

    Here’s my list of the top 10

    1. Indy4

    2.Dark Knight

    3.Wall -E

    4.Prince Caspian

    5.Iron Man

    6th to 10 will be a free for all with good reviews and marketing pulling films up

  8. HB2 could surprise a lot of us, but I don’t think it will. If it beats any of the comic book movies this summer it will be The Hulk. I think part of the outcome is going to be due to reviews and multiple veiwings. At the moment I’m looking forward to HB:2 more than The Hulk.

    I’m still hoping The Mummy 3 will come and go with little noise.

  9. @Kristina..”…The more I think about it, the more convinced I become that HB 2 is not cracking the top ten. It’s just not going to happen. It doesn’t have enough mainstream buzz to get the job done….”

    I have similar vibes regarding HB 2, and I want it to perform well.

    My hunch is HB:2 will be a better movie than Hulk & The Mummy 3, but it’s tough to make b.o. predictions.

  10. The more I think about it, the more convinced I become that HB 2 is not cracking the top ten. It’s just not going to happen. It doesn’t have enough mainstream buzz to get the job done. Iron Man is going to do well, but I really don’t think it’s going to be in the top three like some people have it listed. Top five, sure, but I don’t see Iron Man getting past Wall-E(family friendly and Pixar street cred), Dark Knight(highly anticipated sequel and morbid curiosity due to Heath), or Indy 4(duh).

  11. Summer Top Five:

    1. Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull

    Why? One of the most anticipated films this year. This film is bringing the
    eighties filmmaking to 2008. Most of everyone remembers and loves
    the three original Indiana Jones movies. People have been waiting for a part four for a long time.

    2. Iron Man

    Why? Besides marketing, Comic Book movies are on the up rise right now almost every year there is a least one movie that was adaptive from a comic book or graphic novel. Comic Book movies bring lots lots lots of fanboys and girls (nerds). A Comic Con convention takes place in every movie theater on a Comic Book movie opening weekend, metaphorically speaking.

    3. Wall-E

    Why? Family shows are just that, but when a Family show can also appeal to Adults then it becomes more. Pixar has done that so this will bring lots families, plus kids that aren’t in their family. Unless you are under three you will have to buy a ticket.
    4. Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian

    Why? I see possible field trip, it is based on a children novel and many schools do read the books as a class unit. Church groups because religious undertones. Some what anticipated film. Family Film=Kids= Money.

    5. Dark Knight

    Why? Batman has same explanation as to why as Indiana Jones and Iron Man. It is a Comic Book movie that every one is anticipating too see.

    Incredible Hulk, Hellboy II: The Golden Army, and X-Files: I Want To Believe possibly could make the top five. I say this because all three of them will bring fanboydom (nerds). But with a lot of fanboy (nerds) movies people will see it once or maybe even a couple of times in the opening weekend and that’s about it. To stay on top a movie will have to get multiple showings. See it at midnight with a group, see it with significant other, see it with family, see it with best bud, and see it by yourself during the week.

    As for Box Office numbers for 2008 my list will stay the same but I going to have to add in Quantum of Solace and Harry Potter and Half-Blood Prince. They will defiantly be in the top five at end of year both are fall releases, Harry Potter somewhere around 3 or 4 and Quantum of Solace around 2 or 3. Other films in the top five: Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (1ish), Iron Man (2ish), Wall-E (4ish), Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian (5ish), Dark Knight (5ish). The “ish” is equal to + or – 1.

  12. 1. Indy 4
    2. Dark Knight
    3. Wall-E
    4. Narnia
    5. Ironman
    6. Hancock
    7. Kung Fu Panda
    8. Get Smart
    9. Sex and the City
    11. Mummy 3

  13. 1. Dark Knight Ledger died it’s going to help (great reviews will keep a hit all summer thats why it can beat indy.
    2.Indy 4 has a huge fan base but will not be as good as the first
    3. Prince Caspian little kid film parents have to thats why it will do well not cause every one wants to see it. I would not take my kid to see this shit DK and B22 thats good filmmaking.
    4. Iron Man which will most likely be better than most of the top films.
    5. Wall E is going to do well. Its a family film.
    6. Bond22 these films are always in the top box office.( with casino royale success this film will do very well.
    7. Hancock may do well alll though it could flop.
    8. Kung Ku panda.
    9. Hulk has to be low if it evan makes this list (nerd movie) chicks will hate this most chicks.
    10. Sex and the city. the biggest chick show and now movie with the exception of Gone with the Wind.

  14. Hmmm….my predictions

    1) Indy 4
    2) Wall-E
    3) The Dark Knight
    4) Iron Man
    5) Prince Caspian
    6) Hancock
    7) The Mummy 3
    8) The Hulk
    9) Kung Fu Panda
    10) Hellboy 2

    I’m a little iffy on Hellboy making the top 10…it could very well be Sex and the City because there are a hell of a lot women out there chomping at the bit for this flick.
    I could even see Kung Fu Panda making more money than The Hulk because it’s a kids a flick and it has a Panda …not to mention other cute animals. I think the movie looks lame even for a kid movie, but that won’t stop it from being popular.
    I’m hoping The Mummy 3 will bomb, but I think the average movie goer is going to see this one; especially if it’s family friendly. Though my real reason for wanting The Mummy 3 not only to bomb but also suck is so my my friend will shut up. He is driving me bananas by thinking it will be good. I want to be able to laugh at his disappointed face. Yes, it’s vindictive -but I can’t help it!

  15. I would say Dark Knight, Indy 4, and Caspian have the track records to open big this summer. It will be interesting to see if Pixar can reverse the downward trend at the boxoffice for their movies, since Finding Nemo, their movies have been bringing in less at the domestic boxoffice.

  16. Dark knight is going to be number one and lest number two and i will see Dark Knight at least 6 times in theaters if it kicks ass.

  17. From my experience, I think Wall-E will be the top one. This is one of those movies that kids and adults alike will definitely go see and it will most likely be a great movie or at least have great animation, considering PIXAR is involved.

  18. There’s only one thing stopping what looks like a great Iron Man film. GTA IV is out the same day. The biggest game release ever may put a considerable dampener on the target audience that weekend. For that reason I think it’ll suffer. Which is a shame as I’m really looking forward to it.

  19. @David Lay

    Considering Hellboy 3 is not being released this summer I doubt it will make the top #10. : ) (sorry just being difficult) Although I agree with I dont think it will break the top 10 even though I would love it if it made it to at least ‘#7 its my top choice of the summer

  20. The title is “Summer Box Office Winners” so flicks like Harry Potter or James Bond should not be listed, they are both WINTER films.

    Anyhow, I agree with John in most part so here is my list:

    Indy 4
    Narnia: Prince Caspian
    Dark Knight
    Kung Fu Panda
    Mummy 3
    Incredible Hulk
    Don’t Mess With The Zohan (Sandler is due for a hit)

    I would love to see Hellboy 2 make it big, but with the way the schedule is for this year I don’t think it will crack the top 10. It will do better than the original.

    Also, though some people have been slagging it, Speed Racer will make some noise. The way Warner is marketing it will have a strong appeal to families.

    And I have to agree, Sex in the City will come close to the top ten, the shows following is huge. That said, X Files has been out of the limelight for so long, FOX should be promoting the crap out of it to remind people of the series.

  21. I would think Indiana Jones should runaway with it, maybe Potter will be in there somewhere?

    Mark Salinas, MN

  22. 1. WALL-E - never bet against a Pixar family film. What do kids love next to dinosaurs? Robots!
    2. Harry Potter
    3. Indiana Jones
    4. Dark Knight
    5. Iron Man

    The other movies will be a toss up.

  23. I am going to count Harry Potter as a summer flick, and put it in my top 5 movies of the summer.

    1. Indiana Jones
    2. Dark Knight
    3. Harry Potter
    4. Iron Man
    5. WALL-E

  24. lol woooow why are we all putting hankock over the hulk, mummy, speed racer and hellboy? really? lol sheesh

    @ Darren J Seeley
    dude- if you switch hellboy for get smart and speed racer for x files your list would be perfect

  25. Yes, it’s hard to bet against Pixar. Still, I’d put ‘Wall-E” in the bottom ten, not in the top 5. Also- it seems one studio- Universal- hasn’t been creating a lot of buzz for their releases. “Mummy 3” and “Hulk” better get cracking.

    Here’s my thought process:

    1) Iron Man

    2) Indy

    3) The Dark Knight

    4) Caspian

    5) Kung Fu Panda

    6) Get Smart

    7) Don’t Mess With The Zohan

    8) Hulk

    9) X Files I Want To Believe

    and sit down for this one:

    10) Star Wars : The Clone Wars


    Yes, I think Hancock will bomb.
    HellBoy 2 will come in at #11- or pushed to October like it should be
    Yes, Speed Racer will bomb
    Yes, Sex and The City will pull in good numbers, but just about as much as the sequel to Sisterhood Of The Travelling Pants in fact, Pants 2 will be at #12. City #13.

    Wanted will bomb- it’s facing Wall E for starters.

  26. Kristina is right. The Top 3 will be down to Indy IV, The Dark Knight and Wall-E.

    It’s just a matter of in what order will they rank and how much will they earn. I feel confident enough to say all 3 films will pull in $250 million minimum…

  27. Indy - 315
    Iron man - 260
    Wall-E - 255
    Prince Caspian - 250
    Batman - 245
    Hancock - 225
    Speed Racer - 220
    Kung Fu Panda - 165
    Incredible Hulk - 145
    Mummy 3 - 115

  28. Domestically Potter really doesn’t stand a chance against Indy.

    But that is another discussion I think John might be right with his list. If i am going to change something it would be Wall-e as number 2, and even though John said on the podcast on Monday that he hasn’t head much buzz around the Sex and the City-movie i think it will be a huge hit. I hope i am wrong though. Personally i have no interest in that movie, and lucky for me neither does my girlfriend
    A movie that deserves to be on the list is Hellboy, but it sadly won’t

    So my list is

    1. Indiana Jones
    2. Wall-E
    3. Iron Man
    4. Prince Caspian
    5. Sex and the City
    6. The Dark Knight
    7. Hancock
    8. Incredible Hulk
    9. Mummy 3
    10. Kung Fu Panda

  29. Considering how well I am legend id and the fact that Hancock is going to be released around 4th of July I would bum it’s estimate up to 300+.

  30. oh let me just add unless indiana jones is great. if it is fucking amazing then yes I think ti stands a chance at being the biggest film of the year but I think it all depends on how good it is. Unlike the prequels I think word of mouth will matter. If its stinks and word gets out it will still make a shit load but it will get hurt…if it rules and word of mouth is all positive then it can probably start its own mint and print its own money

  31. a few random thoughts….
    I don’t think indy will be the top grossing film of the year….of the summer maybe but harry potter will make more than indiana jones in terms of top of the year but I definitely think it will be hard to beat amongst the summer films.

    dark knight will more than likely be bigger than iron man.
    as fantastic as iron man is I think dark knight will be very very big. I really do hope iron man is a huge hit as I want to see another one immediately. My only worry for it is the fact that twice this week I have mentioned it to a couple of “average” movie going friends (when I say average I just mean they do not frequent sites like this and obsess over films the way we do) and I get blank stares. not only do they not care they haven’t heard of it. I do worry that maybe he’s a little to obscure of a character for people. I think the marketing will have done its job but they were totally unaware of it…..

    the mummy will (should) turkey. no one will be interested.

    the same ten guys who showed up for hellboy will turn up for hellboy 2 so I imagine it will make around about the same. probably a bit more but it won’t be huge.

    wall-e is the one that could make more than indiana jones. it has a massive cute factor going for it and looks to be closer in spirit to finding nemo than cars or ratatouille.

    and don’t count out prince caspian either. the little ones will be flocking to that one..especially little ones of certain faiths….

    I don’t think I could construct a top ten in order as anything could happen really. I think it will be a mix of johns and ew’s list.

    who the fuck knows…all I know is I want to see hamlet 2

    rock me rock me rock me sexy jesus

  32. And do keep in mind with HB II: that movie is being walked in front of the firing squad, opening just one week before Dark Knight mania sweeps the land. It’s got one week really to make bank before it gets forgotten.

    BUT, this could also end up as a plus. When dumbasses who still haven’t heard of Fandango show up to the theater and Dark Knight is inevitably sold out, they may choose HBII as a last resort movie. HB II could benefit from overflowing theaters, but I don’t think it will be by very much.

  33. Tough to call, I don’t like Kung Fu Panda being in the top 10 though, I get the feeling that people are beginning to get Jack Black’d out. Also, I think Dark Knight will be right around Indy 4 and will destroy Iron Man in dollar numbers. Kristina has a very valid point in her last statement, you can’t count out the chick flick that’s going to be pressured onto every poor sap guy that gets forced to go see this in the theaters or face the wrath of their ladies. Personally my list goes like:

    Indy 4
    Dark Knight
    Iron Man
    Incredible Hulk
    Mummy 3
    Sex and the City
    Hellboy 2

  34. Mummy will do less than 176, I think. People are over that franchise.

    Hancock will do well, but not THAT well. Depends on the second week drop off, which depends on whether the movie’s a shitstorm or not.

    If Iron Man is lacking in action, like some reviews are starting to say, it might take a small hit, but that thing is gonna make bank.

    I’m really scared for Hellboy 2. I want that thing to be great and perform well, but I just don’t see that thing cracking the top ten of summer. The first one was not a big hit, which is why Sony dumped the sequel in the first place, and while fanboys are psyched, you can hear crickets and “WTF is that?!” when the trailer plays in theaters.

    If I had to guess, I’d go

    Indy 4
    Dark Knight
    Iron Man
    Kung Fu Panda
    I can’t decide the bottom three, but I’m telling you right now, SEX AND THE CITY WILL BE THE SLEEPER HIT OF THE SUMMER. Perfect counter-programming right there.

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